Mathematical Modeling and Threshold Analysis of Acceptable Failure Rate and Academic Standard; [Modelagem matemática e análise de limite de taxa de reprovação aceitável e padrão acadêmico]; [Modelado matemático y análisis de umbral de tasa de reprobación aceptable y estándar académico]

A certificate is evidence of participating in a process, and anyone who holds a certificate is believed to have the prerequisites necessary to handle what the certificate qualifies them for. However, this perception might be incorrect if the certificate has been obtained by taking shortcuts. [Objective] In this paper, a compartmental model was developed to quantify factors that could put the authenticity of a certificate in doubt by examining the trade-off between academic standards and failure rates in the context of tertiary education institutions in Nigeria. [Methodology] The model was validated using several mathematical theorems. Equilibria for the model and the threshold for acceptable academic performance were derived. Stability analysis was carried out by using the stability theory of differential equations based on the derived acceptable academic performance threshold. [Results] The theoretical results for the model were validated through numerical simulations, and the results from the simulations linked acceptable failure rates to academic performance falling below the threshold of the institutions’ standards. [Conclusions] The policy implication of the result is that an increase in the supply of qualified graduates into Nigeria’s labor markets, as well as a reduction in the rate of unemployment, is a function of maintaining academic standards. © 2024 Universidad Nacional. All rights reserved.